Fraser Institute News Release: Ottawa’s $170 per tonne carbon tax by 2030 will result in over 200,000 lost jobs


OTTAWA, March 16, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The federal government’s plan to impose a $170 per tonne carbon tax by 2030 will result in about 202,000 fewer jobs in Canada, finds a new study released today by the Fraser Institute, an independent, non-partisan, Canadian public policy think-tank.

“The federal government has said the higher carbon tax will have ‘almost zero’ impact on the economy, but in fact, a tax of that magnitude will have significant effects on the economy and on Canadian workers across the country” said Professor Ross McKitrick, a Fraser Institute senior fellow and author of Estimated Impacts of a $170 Carbon Tax in Canada.

The study also finds that a national $170 per tonne carbon tax will cause a 2.1 per cent drop in Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which in 2019 would represent a loss to the economy of about $44.1 billion.

And even taking the carbon tax rebate into account, the average Canadian worker will still have $1,800 less income every year as a result of the $170 carbon tax.

The contraction in the economy from the higher carbon tax was also determined to adversely affect government finances. Specifically, provincial and federal deficits are projected to increase by $24 billion once the new carbon tax is fully implemented.

“Many previous studies, including some from the federal government itself, have shown that a large carbon tax will have major negative impacts on the economic well-being of Canadians,” said Elmira Aliakbari, director of natural resource studies at the Fraser Institute and study co-author.

“Our new study confirms these earlier findings. The government needs to be transparent with Canadians about what the real costs of this policy are likely to be.”

Estimated Job Loss and GDP Decline by 2030

Province Number of jobs lost Decrease in GDP Canada 202,554 2.1 per cent British Columbia 22,919 1.8 per cent Alberta 30,544 2.5 per cent Saskatchewan 1,280 2.2 per cent Manitoba 1,679 1.4 per cent Ontario 98,766 2.2 per cent Quebec 42,318 1.7 per cent New Brunswick 2,248 2.4 per cent Nova Scotia 1,459 2.6 per cent Prince Edward Island 452 2.0 per cent Newfoundland & Labrador 1,040 1.4 per cent

Ross McKitrick, Senior Fellow
Fraser Institute

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Drue MacPherson, Fraser Institute
Tel: (604) 688-0221 Ext. 721
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The Fraser Institute is an independent Canadian public policy research and educational organization with offices in Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto, and Montreal and ties to a global network of think-tanks in 87 countries. Its mission is to improve the quality of life for Canadians, their families and future generations by studying, measuring and broadly communicating the effects of government policies, entrepreneurship and choice on their well-being. To protect the Institute’s independence, it does not accept grants from governments or contracts for research. Visit

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